world news - 20.10.2003
US Hardwood Exports Continue To Improve
Statistical data published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service indicates that hardwood exports in 2003, for the January through July period, were just 2.8% behind the 2002 volume. At the same time, the value of the shipments exceeded last year by just over US$5 million, or 0.7%.
Along with better lumber sales, shippers reported an increase in demand for both veneer logs and sawlogs. Since 1999, log exports have increased from 1,693,000 cubic metres to 2,280,000 cubic metres, an increase of 35%. Canada buys 70% of all hardwood logs exported from the United States.
The continued growth of the U.S. economy is encouraging. Final revisions put the gross domestic product (GDP) at 3.2% for the second quarter of the year. Economic forecasters now feel that the expansion of the economy will lead to growth rates for the balance of the year in the four percent range.
Consumer spending rose 0.8% in August and personal income rose 0.2% due to tax rebates. Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.15 million units in August, the second fastest pace for any month on record, according to the Commerce Department. This was only slightly off the all-time record pace of 1.18 million units set in June this year.
Sales of existing single-family homes set a second consecutive monthly record in August on the heels of record-low interest rates in June. Existing-home sales rose 5.5 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.47 million units from an upwardly revised level of 6.13 million units in July. Last month's sales activity was 21.8 percent above the 5.31-million unit pace in August 2002.
Lumber production in September was slightly better than in August although continued rain and Hurricane Isabel hurt some locations, however most sawmills have enough logs to operate on. In a survey of the industry, most agreed that production will only slowly turn upward and that some areas are going to be very short of logs this winter.
White Oak is becoming in even tighter supply as more endusers look for this lumber. Domestic hardwood markets have been quite strong, with no slowing in the demand for flooring, kitchen cabinets and wood mouldings. The furniture industry experienced increased orders in the past six weeks and a number of plants were looking for more lumber.
European export activity picked up in September, especially to Northern Europe, which had been slow. Reports indicated some increase purchasing of both logs and lumber by German buyers; year-to-date shipments of lumber to Germany through July were up 21.1% over the previous year.
Italian buyers have been looking for Yellow Poplar (Tulipwood), Hard Maple and White Oak. Italy also bought good volumes of Walnut sawlogs and veneer logs. Italian buyers look for very high-grade saw logs as they cut 8/4 (51mm) and 10/4 (64mm) boules.
Sales to the United Kingdom were steady and limited volumes were shipped to Ireland. Spain continued to be slower than normal, with purchases of White Oak far below last year. Shipments to Belgium-Luxembourg and France continued to be very slow.
Mexico continues to be the fastest growing of the top 5 export markets, but demand for Ash was slower last month. Mexico continued to buy significant volumes of Red Oak, Poplar and Hard Maple. USDA figures indicate that shipments to Mexico for the first seven months of the year were nearly 6 million board feet ahead of last year.
Far Eastern sales continued to lag as Chinese buyers have only recently begun to increase their inquiries. The impact of SARs has been much larger on trade than we expected, although more inquiries from China have been received recently. China is increasing its buying of logs, especially sawlogs. China has been buying more Cherry and Walnut this year.
Singapore shipments continued to be very slow after being quite strong in late 2002 and early 2003. Sellers indicate that there is a bit more demand from Japan for high-grade lumber, especially White Oak, Ash, Hard Maple and Walnut.
See also:
- — Decreasing European Hardwood Production
- — West Africa Sawnwood Prices
- — West African Log Prices
- — Finland: Higher Sawnwood Production
- — Finland: Higher Plywood Production