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world news - 20.04.2004

Japan: Tropical Log Market Firms

Firm FOB log prices have forced up the log market in Japan. Since February arrivals in Japan were modest (around 72,000 Cu.m), and March log price negotiations tended to be bullish, although prices did not move much.

Importers are saying that FOB log costs are rising so steeply that current wholesale prices in Japan are some yen 400 per koku less than the actual cost of late February prices of about US$143 per Cu.m for Meranti regular. March shipment prices are more than US$150 per Cu.m so by late April and early May, the log cost could be yen 600 per koku higher than current prices.

Current prices for Sarawak Meranti regular translate to about yen 5,000 yen per koku CIF and are firming. Meranti small is at yen 4,500-4,550 and super small is at yen 4,100-4,150. Both are yen 50 higher than a month ago. PNG's taun/calophyllum is at yen 4,600— 4,700, 50 yen higher.

Japanese plywood mills are resisting higher Sarawak Meranti log prices because they say the market for tropical hardwood plywood is not as good as the market for softwood plywood. Mills are now looking for relatively inexpensive Sabah logs and PNG's quality logs for thin plywood and MLH for medium and thick plywood production.

Log production in SE Asia is reportedly gradually improving despite continuing unstable weather conditions but the export prices remain high because local plywood mills are paying good prices for logs as the market for plywood has improved.

Sarawak Meranti regular FOB prices for Japan are around US$155-156 per Cu.m (SQ up), about US$13 higher compared to prices in late February. Small and super small Meranti prices are also up by US$10.

Shipping companies are under pressure to increase ocean freight rates again because charter rates and bunker oil prices continue to go up. The Japan Lumber Report suggests that freight on Sarawak loadings may go up by about US$2-3 per Cu.m.

ITTO


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